Tuesday, June 11, 2024

The evolution of the Afghan health system 2002 to 2022 and challenges ahead after the return of the Taliban to power

 Elgar Companion to Health and the SDGs – pre publication proof

Najibullah Safi, Ahmad Jan Naeem, and Palwasha Anwari


Introduction

Worldwide, over 274 million people will need humanitarian assistance, and this is the

highest in decades. As a result of the humanitarian crisis affecting access to healthcare

services, women and children bear ample additional morbidity and mortality. The impact of

armed conflict on the health of women and children surpasses the effects on those directly

affected by conflict (E. Bendavid et al., 2021). Children are the first victims of all types of

emergencies and pay the highest price (UNICEF, 2022).

Since the Soviet Union invasion in 1979, Afghanistan has suffered from ongoing conflict and

humanitarian crises. The last political transition in mid-August 2021 was triggered by the

sudden military withdrawal of the United States and its allies, resulting in the collapse of the

elected government, and put at severe risk all development gains made over the last two

decades. Following the political turnover, much of the development funding, including

financing for health, was paused. This created substantial risks for the provision of basic

health services and negatively impacted access to health care, particularly for women,

children, and other vulnerable groups.

The United Nations estimates that out of a population of close to forty-one million 22.1

million people in Afghanistan need life-saving humanitarian support in 2022. (World Bank

(WB), 2023) This shows around a 20% increase compared to 2021. The increase in the

number of people needing assistance is driven by multiple shocks: from the takeover of

government; recurrent natural disasters; poor recovery from previous disasters; reduced

donor funding; worsening economic conditions; increased food insecurity; and lack of access

to basic services, including healthcare. The health needs are immense; more than 14.5

million people, including 2.9 million women of reproductive age (15-49 years old), 700,000

displaced people, and 1.2 million people with disability, need urgent support in 2022 (UNOCHA,

2022).

In this study, we focus on the last 20 years (2002-2022) of Afghanistan’s health system and

its path to achieving the sustainable development goals in the context of ongoing conflict

and humanitarian crises.

Approach and Objectives

The World Health Organization’s (WHO) health system’s building blocks serve as the study’s

analytical framework and shapes the analysis. The blocks are: Health service delivery; Health

workforce; Health information systems; Access to essential medicines; Health systems

financing; and Leadership and governance (WHO, 2010).

Drawing on national documents, regional and international published literature, we first

examine the achievements of the health system over the last two decades (2002- 2021) and

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the factors that led to constrained access to health services with the pausing of donor funds.

Then we assess potential approaches to sustain the gains and prevent excessive morbidity

and mortality, particularly among women, children, and other vulnerable groups.

As the case of Afghanistan demonstrates, many challenges are technical, and indicators

have seen significant improvement with evolving the system and its performance. The main

challenge to improving access of Afghan people to health care, however, is adaptive, i.e.,

requiring a fundamental rethink about how to engage with the situation post-Taliban

takeover in 2021. The chapter ends with some reflections on this, particularly considering

the obligations of the international community.

Definition of terms

Health system - A health system consists of all organizations, people, and actions whose

primary intent is to promote, restore or maintain health. This includes efforts to influence

determinants of health as well as more direct activities that improve health (WHO, 2007).

Power- the recent feminist theory of power by Luttrell and colleagues categorizes four types

of power: (Cecilia Luttrell et al., 2009)

1- Power over (ability to influence or coerce)

2- Power to (organize and change existing hierarchies)

3- Power with (power from collective action)

4- Power within (power from the individual)

Healthcare access is a complex concept and is measured in terms of availability,

affordability, physical accessibility, and acceptability of services (M. Gulliford et al., 2002). In

other words, healthcare access is the ability to obtain healthcare services such as

prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and management of diseases, disorders, and other healthimpacting

conditions. Healthcare must be affordable and convenient to be accessible.

Four aspects must be evaluated (M. Gulliford et al., 2002):

1- If services are available

2- If there is an adequate supply of services

3- If opportunities to obtain healthcare exists

4- If a population may “have access” to services.

Gender refers to those characteristics of women and men which are socially constructed,

whereas “sex” designates those characteristics that are biologically determined (WHO,

2002).

Health equity, also referred to as socioeconomic health equity, is defined as “the absence of

unfair and avoidable or remediable differences in health among population groups defined

socially, economically, demographically or geographically” (Karien Stronks et al., 2016).

In other words, health inequities are health differences that are socially produced,

systematic in their distribution across the population, and unfair. (Whitehead M. Dahlgren

G, 2006)

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The evolution of the Afghanistan health system

Afghanistan is a landlocked country located in South Asia that shares borders with Pakistan,

Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China. It has an estimated population of

approximately forty-one million and growing at 2.9%, but no formal census since 1979. Over

the last four decades, the country has gone through numerous difficulties at various points.

The monarchy was ended in 1973, which was followed by a series of military coups that

resulted in the establishment of a communist regime in 1978. With the support of the Soviet

military invasion, the regime sustained its power until 1991. Then, the country went through

a civil war (from 1992-1996) when different factions of Mujahidin, who carried out a holy

fight (Jehad) against the communist regime, fought against each other for power. The

situation continued by the first round of the Taliban regime (1996-2001), which was ended

by the military intervention of the international community led by the United States. Over

the last 20 years (2002-2021), after an interim government, the first elected government

came into power in 2004, which was supported by the upper and lower house parliaments.

The Taliban came into power for the second time in mid-August 2021 with the sudden

withdrawal of the United States military and its allies. It resulted in the collapse of the

democratic administration. Since then, the Taliban administration has not been recognized

by any single country, while some levels of diplomatic interactions are happening with the

Taliban militant group as a de-facto government.

Over the last forty years, the provision of social services, including health, has experienced

drastic changes impacted by the type and degrees of conflict and the interest of the central

government. Throughout this period, the engagement of the international community

indicated considerable variation from supporting the state, to supporting rebels and refugee

camps in neighbouring countries, to deliberate non-engagement.

Traditional medicine has an ancient history, and it was the only treatment practice until the

early 20th century in Afghanistan. The first group of Afghan doctors was trained in Turkey in

the 1920s. The physician assistant program and the first medical college were established in

1931 and 1932, respectively. Throughout the 1960s, the health system was limited to a few

hospitals in large urban areas. Health services in rural areas were restricted to vertical

programs such as malaria, leishmaniasis, and tuberculosis (TB) control. After the Soviet

Union invasion in 1979, the health system was limited to major national and provincial

hospitals, polyclinics and mother and child health (MCH) clinics. On the other hand, nongovernmental

organizations (NGOs) initiated cross-border activities in rural areas. Following

the withdrawal of the Soviets troops, gradually, more areas were accessible to NGOs to

establish a network of primary healthcare facilities.

Between 1992 – 1996 Mujahidin-led government and then the Taliban’s first regime (1996-

2001) showed minimum interest in the health sector. Imposed strict gender segregation,

bans on girls’ education, and women’s social participation all further constrained access to

health services for women and children. However, during the first Taliban regime, with

improved security, the network of NGOs was further expanded. Overall, the country had a

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fragmented health system until 2001. After the collapse of the Taliban in 2001, the Ministry

of Public Health (MoPH) of the new government developed a national health policy and

strategy stating to deliver primary health care (PHC) through a Basic Package of Health

Services (BPHS) across the country. The BPHS was further amended in 2005 and 2010. In

addition, the MoPH introduced the Essential Package of Hospital Services (EPHS) in 2005 to

provide referral support to BPHS facilities.

The state of the Afghan health system in 2021 (until the second Taliban

administration)

Health Services Delivery

The rebuilding of Afghanistan’s health system started in 2002 with the support of the

international community. In the initial phase, the MoPH introduced the contract-out to nongovernmental

organizations (NGOs) for delivering the Basic Package of Primary Health

Services (BPHS) and Essential Package of Hospital Services (EPHS). The system was financed

by donors’ funds managed through different mechanisms by the World Bank (WB),

European Union (EU), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

Initially, it featured disparate and fragmented contract management, with each donor had

its own preferred performance indicators. The health donors collectively financed the

System Enhancement for Health Action in Transition (SEHAT) project, spanning from 2013-

2018. However, after 12 years of supporting the health system, in May 2015, donors agreed

to adapt a harmonized approach. This unified strategy was managed by the World Bank

under the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) scheme (World Bank (WB), 2018).

In Afghanistan, health services are provided through a network of 3,231 public health

facilities. On average, each facility covers a population of 13,000, but coverage varies from

4,100 in Nuristan province to 20,400 people per health facility in Kandahar province (MoPH,

2020). Overall, 93% of the population can access health facilities within 2 hours of travel by

any means of transportation (Central Statistics Organization, 2016-2017). However, the

range of services available to people may vary. In reference to Afghanistan Demographic

and Health Survey 2015 (DHS), Afghanistan Health Survey (AHS) 2018, Multiple Indicator

Clusters Survey (MICS)2022-2023, substantial inequity exists in the access to and utilization

of health services. This is evident, for instance, in illustration of the unequal distribution of

coverage by immunization services shown in Figure 1 (Afghanistan National Statitics and

Information Authories (NSIA) KIT the Royal Tropical Institue (KIT), and Ministry of Public

Health, April 2019)

Figure 1 Proportion of children 12-23 months who were fully immunized according to vaccine cards or mother’s

recall by province, Afghanistan. The darker the color the lower the immunization coverage.

Source: Afghanistan Multiple Cluster Indicators (MICS) 2022-2023(UNICEF, 2023)

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In addition to public facilities private health care facilities operate in parts of the country.

Where available, in general, people prefer to use private facilities for outpatient care and

public facilities for in-patient care (Central Statistics Organization, 2016-2017).

Considering the composite index for access and quality of health care defined by the Global

Burden of Diseases (GBD), Afghanistan is positioned 191st among 195 countries. Women

and girls in Afghanistan face significant barriers in accessing healthcare and other social

services (UNDP, 2020). In 2018, Afghanistan Gender Development Index (GDI), which

measures access to health services, empowerment, and economic status indicators, was

recorded at 0.723, ranking the country 170th out of 189 countries and territories (UNDP,

2020). However, with the onset of the Taliban's second regime, this index declined 14%

further to 0.622, placing Afghanistan 183rd out of 193 countries (UNDP, 2022). Even during

the democratic government, the participation of women in decision-making processes in

Afghanistan was notably low, ranging from 10% in private and government institutions to

20% in NGOs. With the Taliban’s ban on women’s education beyond grade six, coupled with

restrictions on all forms of women's participation in social life, these figures have further

deteriorated.

Health Workforce

Provision of the right combination of health services in appropriate quantities to address

health needs in a specific type of health facility, depends on the deployment and retention

of the right mix of healthcare providers with the right mix of skills. Initial training for Human

Resources for Health (HRH) is undertaken by both public and private universities, while

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medical, nursing, and midwifery councils are responsible for the regulation of HRH.

Refresher training and continuous medical education are provided by different institutions,

including the MoPH, the Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE), and NGOs. Information on

the number, qualifications, skills, and deployment of HRH is scattered and is being compiled

by medical, midwifery, and nursing councils, recently established in 2016 and 2018,

respectively.

Overall, it is estimated that 47,000 healthcare providers are working in the health sector,

out of whom two-thirds are professional staff, while one-third are categorized as support

staff (MoPH, 2020). Medical doctors, nurses, midwives, and technicians constitute 27%,

28%, 13%, and 13% of the total healthcare providers, respectively. Females accounted for

only 32% of the total healthcare providers in 2020 (MoPH, 2020). Reportedly there are

provinces with no female medical doctor, which hampers the access of females and children

to primary healthcare services. On average, there are less than 10 professional staff

(medical doctors, nurses, midwives, technicians, etc.) per 10,000 population, which is much

below the WHO threshold of 44.5 per 10,000 population for universal health coverage

(WHO, 2016). Minimal information is available on the distribution of staff across the country

(Najibullah Safi et al., 2018). MoPH estimates indicate that a substantial portion of staff are

concentrated in large cities, and up to 50% of the professional staff are working only in

Kabul, the capital (MoPH, 2020). Panjshir province has the highest density, with 21 doctors,

nurses, and midwives per 10,000 population, compared to Paktika province, with the lowest

density of 2.3 per 10,000 population (MoPH, 2020). Balanced Score Card (BSC) 2018 reports

that only 35% of the basic primary health (BPHS) and 72% of hospital (EPHS) facilities

deployed the recommended number of staff (KIT the Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), 2018). In

general, staff salaries remain low. However, NGOs provide much higher salaries and benefits

compared to the government.

Health Systems Financing

In 2021, Afghanistan spent nearly US$ 3 billion on health (US$ 97.80 per capita). This

represents 22% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A large portion (77.20%) of the total

health expenditures is paid by families at the point of service delivery as out-of-pocket

expenditures, followed by donors (19.30%) and the government of Afghanistan

(3.30%)(MoPH, 2023). Over the last decade, the Current Health Expenditures (CHE) followed

the same trend: government contribution remained low at 3% – 6 %, donors funding at 18–

23%, and out-of-pocket expenditures consistently remained high at over 77%. The CHE as a

percentage of the GDP (22%) is the highest in the region, while government spending on

health as a percentage of GDP remains the lowest (less than 1%) in the region (MoPH,

2020). In general, total health expenditures have grown from US$ 1.04 billion in 2008 to US$

2.6 billion in 2017 and to US$ 3 billion in 2021(MoPH, 2023).

In 2017, around 90% of the out-of-pocket expenditures were consumed by medical goods

and diagnostic services (MoPH, 2019). Forty-four percent and 25% of the households spent

more than 10% and 25% of their total expenditures on health, respectively. This pushes 14%

of households under the national poverty line every year (MoPH, 2020).

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The BPHS and EPHS were financed by key health sector donors (USAID, WB, EU, Canada)

through a pool fund called Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF). In addition to

ARTF, donors directly financed many projects in the health sector through off-budget

support1. The average cost of EPHS and BPHS is estimated at US$ 6.9 per capita per year,

while it varies from US$ 3.27 in Herat province to US$ 18.87 in Nuristan province. The

provincial differences are due to harsh geographical terrain, scattered population, and to

some extent, prevalent inequities. Almost half of the development budget of the health

sector, which was US$ 269 million in 2018, was allocated to BPHS and EPHS. Off-budget

support mainly finances immunization, including polio eradication and vertical disease

control programs for TB, Malaria, and HIV/AIDS, and salaries of technical assistance (MoPH,

2020).

As reported in successive National Health Accounts (NHA), pharmaceutical expenditures

have been gradually increasing and reached 42% of the CHE in 2021. At the same time, 6.2%

and 14% of the CHE are linked with hospital services and public health interventions,

respectively (MoPH, 2023). Medical tourism, primarily to neighbouring countries, remains a

substantial portion of total health expenditures, accounting 13% of out-of-pocket

expenditures in 2017. This shows a substantial decline from 26% in 2012 (MoPH, 2019).

There has been no updated figure since the Taliban's return to power. However, due to visa

restrictions for Afghans imposed by many countries, including common medical tourism

destinations, these figures may have changed.

Access to medicines and medical products

This is an essential part of the health system. It focuses on regulation, quality control, supply

chain management, financing medicines, essential supplies, and information management

system. The Afghanistan Food and Drug Authority (AFDA) is the responsible entity for

licensing both institutions and individuals, evaluation and registration, quality control of

imported and locally produced medicines, and inspection of the pharmaceutical institutions

from production to drug-selling outlets (MoPH, 2020).

The regulation of medicines includes pre-market interventions, which focus on assessing the

required infrastructure and licensing of staff and institutions. Afghanistan has 19 local

manufacturers, 600 importers, and more than 15,000 pharmacies. Overall, 9,550 medicines

and 2,454 medical products are registered. However, due to widespread corruption, and

porous borders, large quantities of medicines and medical products are illegally imported to

the country on a regular basis. A recent assessment indicated that only 57% of the

pharmacies were able to provide some evidence of registration of the products they sold,

and only 7% were able to provide some evidence of inspection by AFDA (Management

Sciences for Health (MSH), 2015). At the same time, AFDA attempted to set prices for

medicines, and only in 2019 were 6,357 items of medicine and 234 items of medical

products finally priced. However, the widespread corruption and limited inspection capacity

1 Off-budget support: the fund is directly channelled to the implementers, mainly UN agencies and

international NGOs, and it is not reflected in the national health budget.

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prevent enforcement of these set prices (Afghanistan Food and Drug Authority (AFDA),

2019).

Quality control is undertaken by the national quality control laboratory. In 2019, 18,000

teams of medicines were tested, and only 3-4 % did not meet the national standards.

However, a reference laboratory in India cross-checked the initial result and found that

around 15% of the medicines do not meet the required standards. The result confirms the

absence of the required capacity for quality control in the country (KIT the Royal Tropical

Institue (KIT), 2015) and associated corruption. The AFDA does not have the required staff

and resources to ensure effective post-marketing surveillance. Their activities are mainly

limited to the Capital, Kabul. In addition, the capacity for pharmacovigilance is limited, and

only 22 national hospitals, one private, and four district hospitals reported Adverse Drug

Reactions (ADR) after post-marketing. In 2019, only 110 episodes of ADR were recorded.

Required medicines can be purchased from local manufacturers or imported from outside.

Expanding local production through Public Private Partnership (PPP) was a national priority

before the Taliban retune in 2021. The supply chain system is fragmented. Each contracted

NGO in thirty-one provinces manages its own supplies, while the three provinces under the

strengthening mechanism are supplied by UNICEF. The MoPH pool procurement

mechanisms only cover national and reform hospitals (MoPH, 2020). The purchased items

are stored in the central medical stock and based on need, distributed to different health

facilities. Supplies for the vertical programs of immunization, public nutrition, and diseases

control programs (TB, Malaria, and HIV) are purchased and funded by health development

partners, stored in the central medical store, and distributed from there according to the

need. Since 2022, when UNICEF assumed responsibility for the contract management of

BPHS and EPHS, it has been procuring the necessary medicines and supplies for health

facilities. Meanwhile, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) handles the

procurement of supplies for provincial and national hospitals. Availability of medicines is

monitored by BSC and Health Management and Information System (HMIS); both share a

description of availability which is based on the presence of any quantity of medicines in a

health facility at the time of verification. This could be misleading and unable to capture

accurate stock-outs. Stockouts are more common in hospitals. Only 20% reported a

complete set of medicines for the Outpatient Department (OPD), as compared to 80% in

primary healthcare facilities (KIT the Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), 2018). Medicines remain

the largest part of out-of-pocket expenditures on health and represented 41% of the CHE

(US$ 1.2 billion) in 2021(MoPH, 2023).

Health Information Systems

A health information system is one of the most important building blocks of the health

system as everyone uses the data to monitor the trends of disease, make decisions, or

contribute to generating information and knowledge. Health Management and Information

System (HMIS) constitutes the largest component of HIS. Other components include vital

statistics, disease surveillance, research, and monitoring and evaluation.

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The Afghan HMIS consists of data collection, compilation, analysis, reporting, and feedback

to service providers. Data is primarily generated in communities or health facilities. Monthly

paper-based compiled data is sent to the provincial public health directorate, where it’s

entered into an Access database. All the information is reviewed in the monthly meeting of

the provincial health directorates and sent to MoPH on a quarterly basis. After quality

control and necessary adjustment, data is uploaded to District Health Information Software-

2 (DHIS-2), where standard indicators are calculated, and pre-designed dashboards are

generated. DHIS-2 data are made available to data users within and outside the MoPH. Data

are also used to produce quarterly, semi-annual, and annual reports. Through the DHIS-2

platform, several databases such as tuberculosis, malaria, expenditure management

information system, human resources, and pharmaceuticals have been integrated and are

available for HMIS users.

The HMIS produces several indicators, ranging from coverage and utilization to access,

availability, and quality. Population-related indicators, where population estimates are the

denominator, are systematically different and higher than the same estimates obtained

through household surveys. Thus, for example, coverage of the Penta-3 vaccine estimated in

the HMIS 2018 is 92%, 98% for first antenatal care (ANC), and 67% for institutional

deliveries, while the same indicators obtained from the Afghanistan Health Survey 2018 are

61%, 65%, and 56%, respectively(Afghanistan National Statitics and Information Authories

(NSIA) KIT the Royal Tropical Institue (KIT), and Ministry of Public Health, April 2019; MoPH,

2020).

One of the reasons for this discrepancy may be the inadequacy of population estimates.

Since the latest census was conducted in 1979, population data have been estimated and

projected based on assumptions of growth and migration. For 2020, the Afghanistan

population estimate used by HMIS is 30.57 million, while the UN estimate –based on the

2017 remote census and satellite imagery data—exceeds 37.6 million. As a result, the HMIS

may have its limitations for the comparison between administrative divisions, but it is very

useful to assess the evolution over time of the same division (MoPH, 2020).

The disease surveillance system is part of the routine information system. It is based on

periodic weekly reports notified by more than 600 focal persons deployed at health

facilities. Notification is done with Short Message Service (SMS) for urgent cases and is

paper-based for longer periods. The surveillance system targets 20 notifiable

diseases(MoPH, 2020).

The monitoring and evaluation function is contracted out to an independent third party, the

Royal Tropical Institute of Amsterdam (KIT). KIT undertakes an annual balanced scorecard,

which reports on a variety of agreed indicators of resource availability, efficiency, and

quality; semi-annual HMIS and health facility functionality assessments, annual drug quality

assessment, and periodic national health survey (MoPH, 2020).

Comprehensive HIS assessment (2018) emphasizes the need for agreed monitoring and

evaluation (M&E) indicators, data sources, and annual targets; improving death reporting

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and its causes; birth and death notification; census and undertaken periodic performance

review (Comprehensive assessment of Afghanistan's health information system 2018, 2018).

Governance and leadership

Health governance is not always easy to define, as its interpretation may vary. Leadership

and governance in building a health system entail the existence of strategic policy

frameworks combined with effective oversight, coalition-building, regulation, and

accountability (WHO, 2022). For some, good governance means a system fulfilling its

mandate, and for others, it may be divided in several components which have the common

feature that they all influence the whole health system (MoPH, 2020).

Prior to the collapse of government on 15th August 2021, the MoPH in Afghanistan was

responsible for policymaking, regulation, financing, coordination, supervision, and

monitoring, while the responsibility of the health services provision was mainly contractedout

to NGOs(Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), 2021). Following the political transition of

August 2021, NGOs continue to provide health services across the country, while contracts

are managed by UNICEF and financed by ARTF/WB. The role of MoPH under the de facto

government is evolving and not well defined. In early 2021, the MoPH revised the national

health policy 2021 – 2030, which is expected to provide strategic direction to the health

sector. However, the development partners formulated the health sector transitional

strategy for 2022 -2025, which guides the provision of health services and clarify the role

and responsibilities of partners. Official engagement of development partners with the de

facto MoPH is limited to information sharing. All activities in the health sector are

coordinated through the Health Sector Transitional Working Group (H-STWG), which is

comprised of key donors, UN agencies, and the International Committee of the Red Cross

(ICRC).

Achievements and challenges by mid-2021

The last two decades have witnessed impressive developments in the Afghanistan health

sector, resulting in expanded coverage and improved health status. The health system has

also shown substantial resilience in the face of political and economic turmoil over the

years.

More than 90% of the Afghan population now lives within a reasonable distance of a health

facility (Afghanistan National Statitics and Information Authories (NSIA) KIT the Royal

Tropical Institue (KIT), and Ministry of Public Health, April 2019). Health outcomes for

women and children have steadily improved over the past two decades. Afghanistan’s

average life expectancy increased by 17 percent between 2000 and 2020. These successes

are the result of a series of long-term health reforms including the introduction of BPHS in

2003 and EPHS in 2005, which have constituted the backbone of the health sector in the

country. The BPHS and EPHS are contracted out to national and international NGOs which

are financed through ARTF. The contracted services are complemented by off-budget

projects by UN agencies, bilateral donors, and humanitarian actors.

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The progress achieved is maybe best illustrated with the significant reductions in morbidity

and mortality, with particularly substantial improvements in infant, child, and maternal

health that Afghanistan has witnessed. The Afghanistan Health Survey (AHS) 2018 reports

that 59% of deliveries were attended by a skilled professional, and 61% of the children were

completely immunized. Despite the relatively good coverage of public health facilities,

people prefer to visit private providers. Sixty percent of OPDs and 53% of antennal care

(ANC) visits take place in private clinics (Afghanistan National Statitics and Information

Authories (NSIA) KIT the Royal Tropical Institue (KIT), and Ministry of Public Health, April

2019). However, in regional and global comparison, Afghanistan’s health indicators remain

worrisome. The following table compares the key health indicators in 2002 and 2021.

Table 1 Comparison of health indicators 2002 vs. 2021

No Indicators 2002§ 2021¥

1 Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births 1,700 638

2 Under 5 years old mortality per 1,000 live births 275 62

3 Infant mortality per 1,000 live births 165 48

4 Life expectancy at birth, women 42 62

5 Life expectancy at birth, men 47 64

6 Total fertility rate 7 5.1

Sources: §(L. A. Bartlett et al., 2005; K. Viswanathan et al., 2010); ¥(DHS, 2017; Afghanistan Mortality Survey

2010., 2010)

As evident, maternal mortality declined substantially over the last two decades. However,

the national lifetime risk of maternal mortality is still significantly higher than the global

average: 1 in 33 compared with 1 in 190 globally (UNICEF, 2021).

Sustaining gains and preventing excessive maternal morbidity and mortality

There is clear progress, but it is necessary to take immediate action to tackle the causes of

deaths among women while simultaneously focusing on health system strengthening and

addressing the broader social determinants of health. Tackling obstetric hemorrhage, infection,

and unsafe abortion can result in an immediate decline in maternal mortality. In addition,

addressing pre-existing conditions that are exacerbated by pregnancy, such as hypertensive

disorders and maternal anemia, will also assist in lowering maternal mortality.

In addition, maternal health problems often correlate with physical and sexual violence.

Violence in pregnancy poses a threat to the life, wellbeing, and health of both the mother

and the foetus and is associated to miscarriage, stillbirth, premature labour, and low birth

weight (Alhusen, 2015). Gender-based violence, economic exclusion, child marriage, and

lack of appropriate and affordable reproductive health services are common problems that

women face in Afghanistan. Child marriage is common and at least one in three girls get

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married before they become 18 years old. However, it is not well studied and gaps in

knowledge regarding prevalence, practice, and drivers remain (GoIRAF, 2018).

Further, only 23% of married women aged 15-49 are using family planning. Religious beliefs,

family opposition, and concerns about the methods are among the common causes of the

poor use of family planning ("National family planning summit; Renewing commitment to

the family planning program ", 2019). Unequal power relationships and the minimal role of

women in decision-making for health constrain their access to health services. Most Afghan

women lack control over their own fertility, which is instead determined by their spouses

and by sociocultural norms and practices (Kathiva van Egmond et al., 2004). Overall, it is

critical to improve respectful maternity care, women’s autonomy, dignity, choices, and

preferences for addressing preventable maternal and newborn morbidity and mortality

(Gausman J Jolivet RR, Kapoor N, Langer A, Sharma J, Semrau KEA., 2021).

Factors contributing to constrained access to health services after the political transition

The political transition in mid-August 2021 prompted by the sudden withdrawal of the US

and its allies ushered in a period of major uncertainty for the future of the health sector in

Afghanistan. The policies and restrictions placed on women and girls by the de facto

authorities will inevitably lead to a re-emergence of major health challenges for them. This

is aggravated by the limitations placed on the operations of NGOs for instance with the

recent government prohibition of women in their workforce.

But beyond the critical area of access to sexual and reproductive rights and health and

access to education for women and girls resulting from the change of government,

Afghanistan faces a range of health sector challenges that had not been resolved despite all

the progress over the last 20 years. These factors arguably further deepen the trouble the

health system is in.

While the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries are growing,

communicable disease continues to account for a large portion of the overall disease

burden. Afghanistan remains one of the two polio endemic countries in the world. The

country recurrently experiences outbreaks of multiple diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic

severely affected the health system while the outbreaks of malaria, dengue, and measles

were ongoing.

Despite the implementation of corrective measures (e.g., strengthening Infection

Prevention and Control; training of staff on IPC, case management and ICU care; provision of

additional supplies and oxygen, expansion of lab network, deployment of rapid response

teams, strengthening surveillance particularly at the point of entry, provision of home-based

care for mild patients etc.), the pandemic has revealed various deficiencies in Afghanistan’s

health system. Weak surveillance, limited testing capacity, shortage of equipment and

supplies, inadequate ICU capacity and poor oxygen supply, and misinformation about

COVID-19 were among the Key challenges that the country faced (Ahmad Shah Salehi &

Rahimi, Ahmad Omid, 2022). Overall, the country reported more than 200,000 cases and

close to 8,000 deaths. Considering the surveillance and testing capacity, these numbers are

Elgar Companion to Health and the SDGs – pre publication proof

severely underreported. As of December 2022, 54% of the estimated target population has

been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with 63% having received at least one dose of the

vaccine (MoPH, 2022).

Along with a rapidly growing population, NCDs and injuries exert substantial pressure on the

financing and provision of health services (K. M. I. Saeed, 2013). At the same time, poverty,

and food insecurity, which are important causes of malnutrition and maternal and child

mortality, continue to negatively affect the health of Afghans. More than 20 million people

are estimated to need food assistance. Contributing to these challenges is a severe

economic crisis. Estimates suggest that more than 90% of Afghans live below the poverty

line (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), 2021; Shoba Suri & Mona, 2021).

The country is dealing with rising food prices, persistent conflict, severe drought, and

natural disasters, including the 2022 earthquake and recurrent flash floods. Long-term

consequences of these disruptions are likely to lead to a deterioration in many health

indicators, particularly for women, children, and other vulnerable groups (N. Safi et al.,

2022).

The health sector in Afghanistan suffers from chronic geographical, skill, and mixed

imbalances in human resources for health (HRH). In addition of the civil service commission,

the newly established medical and nursing counsels are playing a key role in regulating HRH.

Staff deployment and retention in hardship and remote areas is one of the main challenges

of HRH management. Several initiatives such as recruiting staff from the same area, and

financial incentives have obtained relative success, but the reality is that the situation of

staff availability in many places is described as “fluid” (Najibullah Safi et al., 2018). According

to the BSC 2018, only around 35% of BPHS facilities have the complete recommended team

(KIT the Royal Tropical Institute (KIT), 2018). Ultimately, the solution will require peace and

socio-economic development, both beyond the capacity of health managers. The

concentration of the health workforce in major urban areas widens the inequity in coverage

and access to health services in remote and underserved areas. Other factors such as poor

infrastructure, and unavailability of required equipment and supplies also contribute to

increased inequity in accessing primary health services in remote areas.

The health financing in Afghanistan is characterized by low government health expenditure,

reliance on donor funding, and extremely high OOP expenditure, mostly on medicines,

diagnostics, and treatment abroad (MoPH, 2020, 2021). After the August 2021 transition,

donor funding is confined only to humanitarian response and no investment is made in the

development of health system.

The Pharmaceutical sector has executed the split between regulatory and management

functions. The National Medicines and Health Regulatory Authority (NMHRA) oversees preand

post-market regulation as well as quality control. However, limited implementation

capacity, shortage of inspectors and other staff, and scarce capacity to enforce issued

regulations have reduced the potential impact. Substantial investments over the next few

years will be necessary to increase the NMHRA regulatory capacity to an acceptable level

(MoPH, 2020). The supply chain management of the Afghanistan health sector is completely

Elgar Companion to Health and the SDGs – pre publication proof

fragmented. Each of the NGOs involved in the delivery of BPHS/EPHS runs its own system.

The drug quality assessment 2015 found that up to 15% of samples collected at BPHS/EPHS

facilities failed to pass the quality test, while stockouts could reach up to 25% of essential

drugs(KIT the Royal Tropical Institue (KIT), 2015).

In the last few years, most entities related to gathering, treating, and releasing information

have been placed under the General Directorate of Health Information System (HIS). The HIS

generates quarterly, semi-annual, and annual reports covering different building blocks of

the health system with a key focus on service delivery. The DHIS-2 has become the platform

for integrating sub-sector information systems and making data available remotely to

interested actors. This is overall a positive development. However, reports still lack analysis

and explanations of the events identified through the existing systems (MoPH, 2020). Also,

other challenges in information systems include incomplete data, inaccurate and outdated

population estimates, and delays in releasing various reports. The absence of a functional

feedback mechanism to service providers continues to remain a persistent concern.

Post transition – what next for Afghanistan’s health system?

Following the political transition of 2021, the health sector in Afghanistan finds itself at a

critical inflection point. Discontinuation of support for the provision of BPHS and EPHS will

impose additional risk to the life of every Afghan and results in deaths of eight additional

women, forty-three additional neonates and eighty-four additional children every single day

(Najibullah Safi et al., 2023).

Despite the rule of the Taliban, after a short disruption in services provision the NGOs have

continued to provide health services under the contracting-out arrangements managed by

UNICEF and financed by ARTF/WB, the role of MoPH however, remains unclear and is

evolving. The de facto authorities need to define the governance and leadership function of

MoPH, provide strategic guidance, establish functional coordination structures, invest more

domestic resources in the social sector including health and ensure synergy with donors’

investment.

Corruption continues to remain a major governance challenge. According to the latest

Corruption Perception Index report (2021) by Transparency International, Afghanistan ranks

174 out of 180 countries(International Transparency, 2021)

Improvement of public health requires a multi-sectoral approach (Salunke, 2017).

Achievement of health system goals requires sound governance and adequate resources.

Neither of these conditions is currently being met. The recent ban on women’s education

and employment widens inequities in accessing health services for women and children. In

addition, the maldistribution of health facilities and the health workforce also led to

inequities in the health sector. Furthermore, women, particularly adolescents who

constitute 40% of the population, face enormous challenges in meeting their sexual

reproductive health needs (HeRAMS, 2022). In 2022 Afghanistan ranked the lowest in

Gender Gap Index (146th out of 146 countries) (Global Gender Gap Report 2022;

KhamaPress, 2023) reflecting high levels of inequities in reproductive health, women’s

empowerment, and economic activity. This affects their ability to reach their full potential

Elgar Companion to Health and the SDGs – pre publication proof

and contributes to the high maternal mortality ratio and poor maternal and child health

indicators.

Sustaining the current level of health services delivery is crucial to avoid excessive morbidity

and mortality, particularly in vulnerable population groups, including women and children

(Safi, 2023). In the long term, the allocation of domestic resources is key for sustaining

healthcare delivery and ensuring country ownership. Co-financing mechanisms and other

strategies will be needed to increase domestic resources to health. At the same time, in the

short term, continuous support from the international community is crucial for maintaining

the provision of health services and minimizing the impacts of the severe humanitarian crisis

in Afghanistan (N. Safi et al., 2022). Resuming the universities and training of female health

care providers will play a critical role in sustaining health care delivery in the long term.

Considering the ongoing humanitarian and political crisis, the surge in the burden of

communicable diseases and multiple outbreaks, increasing poverty, ongoing sanctions, and

the growing restriction on women’s mobility, employment and education, Afghanistan is

unlikely to achieve any of the health-related SDGs. Crucially, this is not just a matter of

achieving indicators in a framework. The consequences for access to health for Afghan

people are very significant, with the greatest impact on women and children.

The international allies of Afghanistan, who left the country in August 2021 have an ethical

obligation to continue using different strategies to sustain support to the country and

facilitate positive changes that could lead to a better future for Afghans. The global

community needs to closely work with local communities, community shuras and other

community-based organizations in Afghanistan to support efforts that seek to ensure the

protection of human rights, especially for women and girls, and equal access to health care,

education, work, adequate food, and shelter for all Afghanistan’s people. At the same time

the international community, particularly Islamic countries and organizations must use

every single opportunity to influence the Taliban and foster positive changes for respecting

the basic human rights of all Afghans.

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Friday, April 3, 2020

COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, estimation for Afghanistan



COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, estimation for Afghanistan

Produced by[1]:

Palwasha Anwari, MD, MSc (Epidemiology)
Najibullah Safi, MD, MSc. HPM

 Model: Flu surge software fluSurge2.0 Beta Test Version. CDC-USA), 2005 which was designed by the United States Centers of disease Control and Prevention to estimate the impact of influenza pandemic on hospital surge capacity. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/tools/flusurge.htm)

Purpose: to inform planning purpose for Afghanistan. It roughly gives the total number of infected cases, hospitalizations, cases required intensive care (ICU) and deaths. It also looked at what are needed in terms of hospital capacity, ICU and ventilators.

FluSurge model carries below assumptions
No. 1   Average length of non-ICU hospital stay for influenza-related illness is 5 days.
No. 2   Average length of ICU stay for influenza-related illness is 10 days.
No. 3   Average length of ventilator usage for influenza-related illness is 10 days.
No. 4   Average proportion of admitted influenza patients will need ICU care is 15%.
No. 5   Average proportion of admitted influenza patients will need ventilators is 7.5%.
No. 6   Average proportion of influenza deaths assumed to be hospitalized is 70%.
No. 7   Daily percentage increase in cases arriving compared to previous day is 3%.

Scenarios:
·         Minimum (the best-case scenario), which estimates the fewest possible number of hospitalizations
·         Mean (the most likely scenario), which estimates the number of hospitalizations most likely to occur
·         Maximum (the worst-case scenario)

Model Input

1.    Age groups: into three categories and is taken from Afghanistan National Statistics and Information Authority published yearbook 2018-2019[2]
a.    0-19 years- children and school-aged children
b.    20-64 years- working adults
c.     +65 years- retirees
2.    Number of basic hospital resources
a.    Total number of non-ICU beds/Hospital beds= 13,623 beds based on Yearbook 2018-2019
b.    Total number of ICU- There are 200 ICU beds available in hospitals.
c.    Total number of ventilators- 200[3]
3.    Duration of pandemic
We assumed 12 weeks duration of pandemic- the maximum. (the minimum scenario is 6 weeks and middle case is 8 weeks.
4.    Attack rate
It is assumed 25% of pandemic. 35% and 15% for maximum and minimum scenario.


Figure 1 weekly distribution of hospital admission of cases.
Results:


Most likely scenario
Minimum scenario
Maximum scenario
Pandemic impact/attack rate
25%
15%
35%
Total hospital Admission
58,844
18,018
100,184
Total deaths
9,162
3,430
21,508




Weekly distribution of Hospital admission
The weekly distribution of hospital admission due to pandemic was based on 12-week duration and 25% clinical gross attack rate.  The peak weeks are in the 6th and 7th for all three scenarios. In mostly likely scenario around 8,827 (range of 2,703-15,028) cases will be admitted per week in hospitals during peak time.
Currently we have 200 ICUs across country. Need for ICU increases from week 1 (88 beds) to 1,946 ICU beds (973% of ICU capacity needed).
Need for ventilator capacity increases from 44 ventilators in week 1 to 973 ventilators in the 7th week (487%), the peak of admitted cases.

Death occurrence:
1.    # of deaths from the disease: The total number of patients that died during each pandemic week. Here, we assume that deaths start at the beginning of the 3rd week from 92 to peak of 1,374 deaths in the 8th week.
2.     # of deaths in hospital: The total number of patients would die in hospitals during each pandemic week. The peck death will be in the week 8th and 9th 962 death.




[1] Contribution:
-          Dr. Anwari: lead the process, shaped the idea, consulted CDC expert on using the model for COVID-19 estimates, did the data analysis and drafted the paper
-          Dr. Safi: assisted in shaping the idea, provided input data, reviewed and adjusted the final estimates
[2] Population source:    Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook 2018-2019, https://nsia.gov.af/library
[3] Date source for ICU beds and number of ventilators- Directorate of National Hospitals, Ministry of Public Health